The Lingering Impact of Trump: Will Conservatives and Republicans Face Greater Scrutiny?
Asrès the tenth anniversary of Digby’s observation that ‘Conservatism cannot fail. It can only be failed,’ the question lingers: If President Trump turns out to be a horrendous president who fails to deliver on his promises, will conservatives and Republicans face greater hate and scrutiny?
Indeed, in the 2007 Atlantic article that inspired an impassioned follow-up from Digby, he warned about the risk of conservatives and Republicans clinging to their ideologies and facing backlash.
Short-Term Backlash and Long-Term Implacability
If President Trump indeed fails, there will be a short-term backlash against him akin to what occurred post-2006 and 2008 elections, where the Republican Party (GOP) lost control of the House, Senate, and Presidency. However, just as Ronald Reagan was re-elected despite criticisms, future conservative representation may not waver significantly.
Even if a subsequent narrative emerges that Trump’s policies were insufficiently conservative – too radical or dangerously off the mainstream journey – this is less of a stretch than the divisive rhetoric around George W. Bush, whose ‘insufficient conservatism’ did not prevent him from being re-elected in 2004.
Republicans’ Brand and Their Enabling Role
Regarding the Republican brand, the party is likely to suffer if it is seen as enabling harms to its base. As highlighted by the approval ratings of the current Congress, which are lower than those of cockroaches, Genghis Khan, traffic jams, and Nickelback, it is a reality that political expediency and national distress continue to align. However, despite hatered, the majority of incumbent Congress critters continue to return.
Paradigm Shift and Ideological Validity
Perhaps the election of Donald Trump was a symptom of a larger change where people no longer accept the government treating them with scorn. Future governments, to survive, might need to protect the interests of decent, hardworking, law-abiding people, rather than focusing on demonstrating complex theories.
On the contrary, if Trump succeeds in 'Making America Great Again' and exposes the liberal mentality as paranoid and lacking in ideas, his failure to deliver would be a disaster for the Democrats. As liberal ideas and policies continue to animate debates, the Democrats are left with their only recourse: to directly obstruct Trump at every turn, hoping that their negative stance will endure. Liberals can only rely on their opposition stance to maintain relevance.
Thus, as the looser ideological alliances of the current political climate take hold, the specter of conservative values and policies is likely to see more scrutiny, yet maybe not immediate expulsion from power.
It may well be that this is a new era for conservatives and Republicans, an era where the efficacy of their ideas is more closely scrutinized. Yet history shows us that such scrutiny, unless extreme, rarely leads to complete political dismantling.
In summary, while the immediate reaction to a tarnished Trump presidency might involve greater scrutiny for conservatives and Republicans, the enduring nature of political coalitions and the human need for stability mean that any such changes are likely to be gradual and complex. The Republican brand may waver, but political expediency and the knowledge that negation is easier than creation often mean that one-party governance persists despite rhetorical challenges.