Understanding the Electoral Votes for New Jersey: Why Does NJ Have 14?
Electoral votes are an essential part of America's presidential election process, with each state receiving a certain number based on its population and representation in Congress. New Jersey, like every state, is allocated a specific number of electoral votes, currently 14. In this article, we explore the reasons behind New Jersey's allocation of 14 electoral votes and discuss the impact of population changes and demographic trends.
Basic Understanding of Electoral Votes
The formula for calculating a state's electoral votes is straightforward. There are two votes allocated to every state because all states have two senators each. The remaining votes are based on the state's congressional delegation, which is determined by its population according to the Census conducted every ten years.
How New Jersey’s Current Allocation Works
As of the 2010 census, New Jersey is assigned 12 additional electoral votes for its 12 congressional representatives. This means that New Jersey has a total of 14 electoral votes. This is based on the most recent census data, which is often used for the subsequent election cycles.
Population and the Census
The 2010 census data for New Jersey revealed a population of 8,791,894. This number includes a variety of individuals such as illegal aliens, tourists, students, workers, refugees, asylees, residents, nationals, and citizens who were counted on April 1, 2010. However, it is important to note that the census is not perfect and does not include certain groups like diplomatically immune personnel.
Impact of Population Changes on Electoral Votes
The allocation of electoral votes for New Jersey is closely tied to its population. According to the congressional apportionment algorithm, which was used for the 2010 census, New Jersey would have had 12 more representatives if its population had been exactly 732,658 more or fewer. Given that New Jersey's population was 8,791,894, it would have had 13 electoral votes if it had exactly 8,146,512 people, or 15 electoral votes if it had 8,870,778 people.
Exploring Alternative Apportionment Methods
Several alternative methods for apportioning congressional seats have been considered, each with its own advantages and potential implications for New Jersey's electoral vote count:
Traditional Apportionment
The traditional method based on the total state population results in New Jersey potentially having 16 congressional districts if it had exactly 732,658 more people. With the current population, New Jersey would have 14 electoral votes and 2 congressional districts.
Wyoming Rule
The Wy ration, which allocates additional seats based on the smallest population, could theoretically result in New Jersey having 19 congressional districts. Given its current population, New Jersey would have 14 electoral votes and 2 congressional districts.
Cube Root Method
The cube root method, which divides the population by the cube root of its total, allows for a more dynamic distribution. Using this method, New Jersey could have 308,745,538 people divided by the cube root of 456,808, resulting in 19 congressional districts. With the current population, New Jersey would have 14 electoral votes and 2 congressional districts.
How the Apportionment Algorithm Works
The approval process for allocating congressional seats is guided by an algorithm. Initially, every state is given two seats, corresponding to the two senators. Then additional seats are added one by one based on a geometric average calculation. This process ensures that states with higher populations receive more seats, maintaining a proportional representation.
For example, if the size of the House (the total number of congressional seats) had been increased to 772, Wyoming would have received its second seat. As a result, Washington D.C. would have gained a fourth electoral vote. Conversely, at 823, California would receive 100 congressional districts, reflecting its large population and significant influence in the electoral college.
Conclusion
The current allocation of 14 electoral votes for New Jersey is a result of its population and representation in Congress. While New Jersey is not currently in a position to gain an additional seat, the congressional apportionment algorithm ensures that the distribution remains fair and proportional. As the population fluctuates, future elections may see New Jersey's electoral vote count change, but for now, the state remains at 14 electoral votes.